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Futurism of the University Education System: Application of Scenario Writing Approach | ||
| A Review of Theorizing of Behavioral Sciences | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 3، شماره 1، فروردین 2026، صفحه 75-88 اصل مقاله (648.46 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/j9032.2026.20026.1066 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mahbobeh Montazer Ataei1؛ Ahmad Akbari* 2 | ||
| 1PhD Graduate, Department of Educational Sciences, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Educational Studies and Curriculum Planning, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the future of Iran’s higher education system and to develop possible future scenarios using a foresight approach. The research is applied in purpose and exploratory in nature and employs structural analysis based on the MICMAC method. Initially, through a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents, and related reports, an initial set of variables affecting the higher education system was identified. These variables were then refined and validated through expert consultation in the fields of higher education, science policy, and futures studies. As a result, 27 key variables were selected for analysis. A 27×27 cross impact matrix was constructed to evaluate the direct influence of each variable on the others using a four-point scale. The data were analyzed using MICMAC software to determine the influence–dependence relationships among variables and to classify them into four groups: influential, strategic, dependent, and independent variables. The results show that variables such as government macro policies, public funding allocation, governance structures, and macroeconomic policies act as the main driving forces of the system. In contrast, variables such as educational quality, research productivity, graduate employability, and student satisfaction are highly dependent on these drivers. Based on these findings, four scenarios were developed to describe possible futures for Iran’s higher education system. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Futurology؛ Strategic Planning؛ Micmac؛ Educational Management؛ Policy Making | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 138 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 123 |
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