Hydrological regime shifts and functional river typologies in South-Western Nigeria

Awode, Ayoola; Adewumi, James; Obiora-Okeke, Obinna; Komolafe, Akinola

doi:10.22098/mmws.2025.18030.1641

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	Hydrological regime shifts and functional river typologies in South-Western Nigeria
مدل سازی و مدیریت آب و خاک
مقاله 9، دوره 5، شماره 4، آبان 1404، صفحه 143-158 اصل مقاله (1.09 M)
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/mmws.2025.18030.1641
نویسندگان
Ayoola Awode^* ¹؛ James Adewumi²؛ Obinna Obiora-Okeke³؛ Akinola Komolafe⁴
¹PhD of Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
²Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
³Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
⁴Associate Professor, Department of Remote sensing and Geo-informatics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
چکیده
Rivers in tropical regions and specifically West Africa are experiencing core hydrological changes under the twin-impacts of climate variability and intense land use change. This study analysed daily discharge for six rivers in South-Western Nigeria (Oba, Ogbese, Ogun, Osun, Owena, Yewa) over 1983–2023 (~14,600 observations per river). Methods combined Mann–Kendall with Sen’s slope (annual means), flow-duration curves (Q10/Q50/Q90 and log-slope), descriptive statistics, percentile-based extremes (Q95/Q5), Weibull flood-frequency, Colwell’s predictability (P, C, M), and PCA–k-means clustering. No river showed a significant monotonic trend (p > 0.05), yet variability was large (CV range ≈ 1.03–2.10). Ogun carried the largest high flows (Q10 = 488 m³ s⁻¹) and, with Yewa (CV ≈ 1.03), exhibited more baseflow support; Oba and Ogbese were flashy (CV = 2.10 and 1.37). Predictability was low across basins (P ≤ 0.246; C = 0), indicating unstable seasonality. Extremes were frequent: each river recorded ~296–749 flood days and a similar number of drought days over the record; 100-year peaks in Ogun exceeded 3,000 m³ s⁻¹. PCA–k- means separated Ogun from the other five rivers, supporting a functional typology for management. These findings argue for regime-oriented, nonstationary planning: linking operations, urban green infrastructure, and monitoring to variability, thresholds, and detected shifts rather than historical means.
کلیدواژه‌ها
South-Western Nigeria؛ streamflow؛ flow-duration curve؛ Mann–Kendall test؛ Colwell predictability؛ hydrological extremes

مراجع
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Hydrological regime shifts and functional river typologies in South-Western Nigeria