Comparative analysis of the effects of climate change and land use on runoff and its prediction in a mountainous watershed in Northwestern Iran

Irani, Tayebeh; Abghari, Hirad; Rasouli, Ali Akbar

doi:10.22098/mmws.2025.18107.1644

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

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	Comparative analysis of the effects of climate change and land use on runoff and its prediction in a mountainous watershed in Northwestern Iran
مدل سازی و مدیریت آب و خاک
مقاله 11، دوره 5، ویژه نامه 1، 1404، صفحه 181-198 اصل مقاله (1.28 M)
نوع مقاله: Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/mmws.2025.18107.1644
نویسندگان
Tayebeh Irani¹؛ Hirad Abghari^* ²؛ Ali Akbar Rasouli³
¹PhD graduate, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
²Associate Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
³Professor Department Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
چکیده
Sustainable water resource management in semi-arid regions requires a precise understanding of the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes. Climate change and land use are primary factors influencing the hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in semi-arid areas. This study conducts a comparative analysis of their effects on runoff and water retention in the Zolachai watershed, located in northwestern Iran, using the InVEST model. Climate data, including SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from the ACCESS-CM2 model, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for 2016, 2020, and 2023, and hydrological soil group data (A, B, C) were used to generate runoff and water retention maps for 2016, 2023, and projections for 2030. Results revealed that residential areas, with Curve Numbers (CN) of 70–90, exhibit the lowest water retention and highest runoff (359.4–647 mm) due to impervious surfaces. Conversely, orchards and irrigated lands, with CN 36–80, demonstrate the highest water retention and lowest runoff (137.2–333.8 mm) owing to high soil permeability and vegetation cover. Projections for 2030 indicate an increase in orchards and irrigated lands from 221.11 to 528.18 km² and a decrease in pastures and bare soils, leading to increased water consumption and reduced surface flows. Climate change, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, intensifies rainfall, elevating flood risks. These findings highlight the need for integrated water resource management to mitigate environmental risks such as soil erosion and flooding. This study provides a model for sustainable management of mountainous watersheds.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Watershed Management؛ Monitoring and Assessment؛ Climate Scenarios؛ Runoff Retention؛ InVEST Model

مراجع
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Comparative analysis of the effects of climate change and land use on runoff and its prediction in a mountainous watershed in Northwestern Iran