Detection of climate warming signals in Zagros forests using cold temperature indices

Dargahian, Fatemeh; Lotfinasabasl, Sakineh; Gohardoust, Azadeh

doi:10.22098/mmws.2025.18026.1640

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

تعداد نشریات	31
تعداد شماره‌ها	472
تعداد مقالات	4,152
تعداد مشاهده مقاله	6,935,104
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله	4,680,582

	Detection of climate warming signals in Zagros forests using cold temperature indices
مدل سازی و مدیریت آب و خاک
مقاله 10، دوره 5، ویژه نامه 1، 1404، صفحه 167-180 اصل مقاله (1014.09 K)
نوع مقاله: Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/mmws.2025.18026.1640
نویسندگان
Fatemeh Dargahian^* ¹؛ Sakineh Lotfinasabasl²؛ Azadeh Gohardoust³
¹Associate Prof., Desert Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
²Assistant Prof., Desert Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
³Researcher, Desert Department, Research Institute of Forest and Rangelands (RIFR), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
چکیده
One of the new challenges of the last two decades is the decline of the Zagros oak forests. Numerous natural and human factors have influenced the occurrence of this phenomenon. The natural factors of climate change are decisive, which have led directly and through the superimposition of other factors to the drying out of the Zagros trees, especially the oaks. The driving forces of climate change are rising temperatures. One of the manifestations of rising temperatures is the decline in cold temperature indices. In this study, daily statistics of climate parameters in synoptic stations of the Zagros vegetation area during a complete climatic period were used to detect climate change in the Zagros oak forest ecosystem. There are 58 synoptic stations in this ecosystem. Since 30 years (1990-2019) is a climatic period, 34 stations had the appropriate statistical period length. The Expert Team on Climate Risks and Sectoral Climate Indices (ET CRSCI) method was used to identify the occurrence of climate change in the Zagros ecosystem as one of the causes of oak decline. Cold temperature indices: FD0, ID0, CSDI2, CSDI6, TN10p, and TX10p were selected from the baseline indices. The trend of changes in these indicators was extracted and zoned for the entire Zagros habitat. The results showed that the spatial distribution of cold temperature indices follows three factors: the latitude, the topographic height of the region, and the path of atmospheric currents to Zagros. All cold temperature indices showed a decreasing trend, indicating an increase in temperature and climate change in the entire ecosystem of the Zagros. Due to the temperature rise, the two indicators FD0 and CSDI6 have disappeared in the Zagros ecosystem in the last decade. This can lead to disruption of the hibernation cycle of plants and trees, changes in erosion and moisture storage, damage to soil microorganisms, and provide more suitable living conditions for pests and pathogenic fungi.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Climate change؛ Indicators cold؛ Forest ecosystem؛ Decline of oak؛ FD0؛ CSDI6

مراجع
References Ahmadi, R., Kiadaliri, H., Mataji, A., & Kafaki, S. (2014). Oak forest decline zonation using AHP model and GIS technique in Zagros forests of Ilam province. Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences, 4(3), 141-50. Alesheikh, A. A., & Mehri, S. (2019). Modeling oak decline using artificial neural networks. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 28(110), 65-76. doi:10.22131/sepehr.2019.36612. [In Persian]. Asgari, S., Raziei, T., Hosini, A. (2021). Spatial Analysis of the Relationship of Oak Forest die back with Recent Droughts in Ilam Province. Geographical Space, 21 (73), 141-153. doi: 10.1001.1.1735322.1400.21.73.8.0. [In Persian]. Attarod, P., Sadeghi, S., Taheri Sarteshnizi, F., Saroyi, S., Abbasian, P., Masihpoor, M., Kordrostami, F., Dirikvandi, A. (2016). Meteorological parameters and evapotranspiration affecting the Zagros forests decline in Lorestan province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 13(2), 97-112. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2016.106018 Bedrood, F., Ghazamfari, H., Valipour, A. (2021). Application of the Logical Framework Analysis for planning and evaluation of oak decline’s forest management plan. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 29(1), 53-64. doi: 10.22092/ijfpr.2021.353170.1979. [In Persian]. Brasier, C.M., Robredo, F. and Ferraz, J.F.P. (1993). Evidence for Phytophthora cinnamomi involvement in Iberian oak decline. New or unusual records. Plant Pathology, 42: 140-145. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3059.1993.tb01482. Colangelo, M., Camarero, J. J., Borghetti, M., Gentilesca, T., Oliva, J., Redondo, M. A., & Ripullone, F. (2018). Drought and Phytophthora are associated with the decline of oak species in southern Italy. Frontiers in plant science, 9, 1595. doi: org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01595 Di Filippo, A., Alessandrini, A., Biondi, F., Blasi, S., Portoghesi, L., & Piovesan, G. (2010). Climate change and oak growth decline: Dendroecological and stand productivity of a Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) old stored coppice in Central Italy. Annals of Forest Science, 67(7), 706-706. doi:10.1051/forest/2010031. Fallah, A., & Haidari, M. (2018). Investigating the oak decline in different crown-dimensions in middle zagros forests (case study: Ilam). Ecology of Iranian Forest, 6(12), 9-17.‏ http://ifej.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-205-en.html. doi:10.29252/ifej.6.12.9. [In Persian]. Darabi, H., Gholami, S., & Sayad, E. (2017). Spatial distribution of Oak decline in relation to trees morphologic properties in Zagros forests, Kermanshah. Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology, 23 (2):1-22. doi:10.22069/jwfst.2017.10541.1550. [In Persian]. Dargahian, F., & Razavizadeh, S. (2022). Detection of heat waves in Zagros decay monitoring sites Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 20(1), 1-14. doi:10.22092/ijfrpr.2022.355366.1501. [In Persian]. Dargahian, F., Pourhashemi, M. & Lotfinasabasl, S. (2025). Investigating the occurrence of drought in the forest ecosystem of Zagros due to its coincidence with the decline of oak forests. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 22(2), 285-308. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2024.366110.1631. [In Persian]. Dargahian, F., Ghasemi Aryan, Y. and Heydarnejad, S. (2024). Revealing the change of the frost indices as a consequence of climate change, a case study of Northern Zagros forests (Azerbaijan). Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 22(1), 30-46. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2024.363591.1601. [In Persian]. Dargahian, F., & Razavi Zadeh, S. (2022). Detection of heatwave events in oak decline monitoring sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. Journal of Forest Research and Protection, 20(1), 1-14. Dolatshahi, A., P. Attarod, G. Zahedi Amiri, S.M.M. Sadeghi & Bayramzadeh, V. (2017). Trends of meteorological parameters and reference evapotranspiration in the northern Zagros region. Journal of Forest and Wood Products, 70(2): 251-260. doi:10.22059/jfwp.2017.62482. [In Persian]. Ghadirian, O., Hemami, M. R., Soffianian, A., Pourmanaphi, S., Malekian, M., & Tarkesh, M. (2018). Probabilistic prediction of forest decline in Lorestan province using a combined modeling approach. Iranian Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 15(2), 131-146. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2018.115705. [In Persian]. Ghadimi, M., Moghbel, M., Gholamnia, M., & Pellikka, P. (2019). Snow line elevation variability under the effect of climate variations in the Zagros Mountains: case study of Oshtorankooh. Environmental Earth Sciences, 78(12), 1-12.‏ Golmohammadi, F., Hassanzad, E., Amiraslam, B., &Mirzaei, J. (2017). The effect of some environmental factors on the severity of tree drying in the Middle Zagros (Case study: Dalab Strait, Ilam province). Journal of Plant Research, 30 (3), 644-655. doi: 10.1001.1.23832592.1396.30.3.15.8. [In Persian]. Hosseinzade, J., & Pourhashemi, M. (2017). Emergence of desiccation within Zagros forests decline. Iran Nature, 2(4), 18-21. doi:10.22092/irn.2017.113378. [In Persian]. Haidarian Aghakhani, M., Tamartash, R., Jafarian, Z., Tarkesh Esfahani, M., & Tatian, M. (2017). Predicting the impacts of climate change on Persian oak (Quercus brantii) using Species Distribution Modelling in Central Zagros for conservation planning. Journal of Environmental Studies, 43(3), 497-511. doi: 10.22059/jes.2017.233756.1007441. [In Persian]. Hamzehpour, M., Kia-daliri, H., & Bordbar, K. (2011). Preliminary study of manna oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) tree decline in Dashte-Barm of Kazeroon, Fars province. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 19(2), 363-352. doi:10.22092/ijfpr.2011.107578. [In Persian]. Imanyfar, S., hasanlou, M. (2017). Remote sensing analysis of the extent and severity of oak decline in Malekshahi city, Ilam, Iran. Journal of Geospatial Information Technology, 4 (4):1-19. http://jgit.kntu.ac.ir/article-1-222-fa.html. [In Persian]. Karamian, M., mirzaei, J. (2020). The Most Important Factors Affecting Persian Oak (Quercus brantii) Decline in Ilam Province. Ecology of Iranian Forest, 8 (15):93-103. doi: 10.52547/ifej.8.15.93. [In Persian]. Kooh Soltani, S., Alesheikh, A., Ghermezcheshmeh, B., & Mehri, S. (2018). An evaluation of potential Oak decline Forest of the Zagros using GIS, RS, FAHP methods. Iranian Journal of Ecohydrology, 5(2), 713-725. doi: 10.22059/ije.2018.225917.448. [In Persian]. Kim, H. N., Jin, H. Y., Kwak, M. J., Khaine, I., You, H. N., Lee, T. Y., & Woo, S. Y. (2017). Why does Quercus suber species decline in Mediterranean areas? Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity, 10(3), 337-341. doi:10.1016/j.japb.2017.05.004. ‏-Lisa Alexander, C., 2015. WMO CCl Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET SCI) Workshop, Nadi, Fiji 7th – 11th. Masoompour Samakosh, J., Miri, M., & Bagheri, S. (2017). The Effect of Climate Change on the Discharge and Characteristics of Karst Springs in Kermanshah Province. Geography and Environmen tal Sustainability, 6(4), 51-66. Matinfar, H. R., Shamsipour, A. and Sadeghi, H. (2025). Investigating the consequences of climate change on the organic carbon content of soils in the forest areas of Middle Zagros. Climate Change Research, 6(22), 97-114. doi: 10.30488/ccr.2024.475201.1243 Misaghi, M., Golchin, A. and Askari, M. S. (2024). Simulating Changes in Organic Carbon of Forest Soils Due to Climate Change at Different Altitudes Using the Roth C Model. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(3), 150-183. doi: 10.22067/geoeh.2024.85968.1445 ‏Mohammadi, P., Mahmoudi, A., & Khorani, A. (2019). Changes in snow cover in the Zagros Mountains using daily data from MODIS sensor. Earth and Space Physics, 45 (2), 355-371. 10.22059/jesphys.2019.256133.1006997. [In Persian]. Modaberi, A., & Mirzaei, J. (2017). Study of decline effect on structure of central Zagros forests. Journal of Forest Research and Development, 2(4), 325-336. Moradi, M. J., Kiadaliri, H., Babaie Kafaky, S., & Bakhoda, H. (2021). Zoning of Decline Potential of Persian Oak by TOPSIS Technique and the Factors Affecting it in Ilam Forests. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 23(5), 213-227.‏ ‏Motlagh, M. G., & Kiadaliri, M. (2021). Zoning of Areas with Susceptibility to Oak Decline in Western Iran. Quaestiones Geographicae, 40(1), 75-83 doi:10.30495/jest.2021.51888.5047. [In Persian]. Mozafari, F., Karamshahi, A., & Heydari, M. (2019). Mapping Dieback Intensity Distribution in Zagros Oak Forests Using Geo-statistics and Artificial Neural Network. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 2019, 8(3), 31-44. 20.1001.1.24763128.1398.8.3.4.9. [In Persian]. Nassaji-Zavareh, M., Abdollahzadeh, A. & Elahi, M. (2017). Determination of the effect of some climate factors on the forest decline using PCAGIS method (Case study: Kermanshah city). Journal of Forest and Rangeland, 112: 32-38. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2016.106018. [In Persian]. Naseri, M., Shataee Jooibari, S., Mohammadi, J., & Ahmadi, S. (2020). Investigation on the Amount of Mortality of Iranian Oak Trees (Quercus brantii Lindi) using Satellite Imagery (Case study: Dashte barm forests of Fars Province). Ecology of Iranian Forest, 8(16), 72-80.‏ doi: 10.52547/ifej.8.16.72. [In Persian]. Naghipour, A. A., Haidarian, M., & Sangoony, H. (2019). Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Pistacia atlantica in the Central Zagros. Journal of Plant Ecosystem onservation, 6(13), 197-214.‏ http://pec.gonbad.ac.ir/article-۱-۳۸۷-fa.html. [In Persian]. Ogaya, R., Liu, D., Barbeta, A., & Peñuelas, J. (2020). Stem mortality and forest dieback in a 20-years experimental drought in a Mediterranean holm oak forest. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2, 89. doi:10.3389/ffgc.2019.00089. [In Persian]. Pourhashemi, M., Jahanbazi Goujani, H., Hoseinzadeh, J., Bordbar, S., Iranmanesh, Y., Khodakarami, Y. (2017). The history of oak decline in Zagros forests. Iran Nature, 2(1), 37-30. doi:10.22092/irn.2017.109535. [In Persian]. Pourhashemi, M., & Sadeghi, S. M. M. (2020). A Review on Ecological Causes of Oak Decline Phenomenon in Forests of Iran. Ecology of Iranian Forest, 8(16), 148-164. doi: 10.52547/ifej.8.16.148. [In Persian]. Poursartip, L., Naseri Karimvand1, S., moradi, M., & susani, J. (2017). Comparing the impact of climate variables on healthy and declined masses of oak (Quercus brantti Lindl) in the “Khorram Abad” city. Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries, 7(4), 591-600.‏ doi: 10.1001.1.20089066.1395.7.4.9.1. [In Persian]. Rostam Zadeh, H., Darabi, S., &Shahabi, H. (2017). Change detection of Oak forests using object-based classification of multitemporal Landsat imageries (Case study: forests of the northern province of Ilam). Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources, 8(2), 92-110. [In Persian]. ‏Sabernasab, M., Marefat, A., &Abbasi, S. (2020). Pathogenicity evaluation of pathogenic fungi causing of oak tree dieback in Kermanshah province. Iranian Journal of Plant Protection Science, 51(1), 79-92. doi: 10.22059/ijpps.2020.293088.1006920. [In Persian]. Shiravand, H., Khaledi, Sh., &Behzadi, S. (2019). Evaluation and Prediction of Decline of Oak Forests in Middle Zagros (Lorestan Section) with a Climate Change Approach. Journal of Forest and Range Protection Research, 33(1): 64.81. doi: 10.22092/ijfrpr.2019.119992 [In Persian]. Shiravand, H., Khaledi S, Behzadi S, &sanjabi H A. (2020) Monitoring and Assessing the Changes in the Coverage and Decline of Oak Forests in Lorestan Province using Satellite Images and BFAST Model. Researches in Geographical Sciences, 20 (57):265-280. doi:10.29252/jgs.20.57.265. [In Persian]. Safaei, M., Rezayan, H., Zeaiean Firouzabadi. P., &Torahi, A. A. (2022). Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the oak spatial distribution (Case study: Ilam and Lorestan provinces). Researches in Geographical Sciences. 22 (65):247-264. doi: ‎ 10.52547/jgs.22.65.247. [In Persian]. Sousa-Silva, R., Verbist, B., Lomba, Â., Valent, P., Suškevičs, M., Picard, O., & Muys, B. (2018). Adapting forest management to climate change in Europe: Linking perceptions to adaptive responses. Forest Policy and Economics, 90, 22-30.‏ doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.004 Teimoori Asl, S., Naghipoor, A., Ashrafzadeh, M., & Heydarian, M. (2020). Predicting the impact of climate change on potential habitats of Stipa hohenackeriana Trin & Rupr in Central Zagros. Rangeland, 14(3), 526-538. 20.1001.1.20080891.1399.14.3.12.4 [In Persian]. Valavi, R., Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H., Matkan, A., Shakiba, A., Mirbagheri, B., & Kia, S. H. (2019). Modelling climate change effects on Zagros forests in Iran using individual and ensemble forecasting approaches. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(1), 1015-1025. doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2625 Zarafshar, M., Negahdarsaber, M., Jahanbazi Gojani, H., Pourhashemi, M., Bordbar, S., Matinizedeh, M., &Abbasi, A. (2020). Dieback in pure stands of Brant`s oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) in southern Zagros forests, Kohmareh Sorkhi region of Fars province. Iranian Journal of Forest, 12(2), 291-303. [In Persian]. https://www.ijf-isaforestry.ir/article_114075.html?lang=en
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 357 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 365

سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب

پیوندهای مفید

آمار

Detection of climate warming signals in Zagros forests using cold temperature indices