Assessing the impact of global meteorological signals on drought occurrence in Iran

Momeni Damaneh, Javad; Tajbakhsh, Seyed Mohammad; Tamassoki, Ehsan

doi:10.22098/mmws.2025.17690.1616

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	Assessing the impact of global meteorological signals on drought occurrence in Iran
مدل سازی و مدیریت آب و خاک
مقاله 5، دوره 5، ویژه نامه 1، 1404، صفحه 62-87 اصل مقاله (1.65 M)
نوع مقاله: Special issue on "Climate Change and Effects on Water and Soil"
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/mmws.2025.17690.1616
نویسندگان
Javad Momeni Damaneh¹؛ Seyed Mohammad Tajbakhsh^* ²؛ Ehsan Tamassoki³
¹Dept. of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran
²Dept. of Watershed Management, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
³Ph.D. in Watershed Management Science and Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran
چکیده
This study investigated the measurable impact of global climate variability, specifically the Southern Oscillation Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation, on regional drought patterns and their potential impacts across Iran. Global climatic fluctuations were major disruptive factors of regional hydrological cycles, often leading to severe consequences such as crop failures, food shortages, malnutrition, and mass migration, with prolonged droughts further exacerbating land degradation and desertification. To understand these complex relationships, monthly rainfall data from 79 synoptic stations in Iran, collected between 1988 and 2017, were analyzed. The Standardized Precipitation Index was calculated for 3, 5, and 8-month periods to comprehensively assess drought severity and duration across different timescales. The research then examined the correlations between Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), revealing a significant influence of the NAO on Iran's annual precipitation. Variations in pressure systems, particularly the Azores High and the Icelandic Low, were found to impact rainfall patterns nationwide; a 5-month analysis indicated that 66% of the studied stations were affected by these systems. Spatially varying correlations were observed at shorter timescales (5 and 8 months), with some stations like Shahre-Babak showing a positive correlation with NAO, while others like Qazvin exhibited a negative one. Findings indicate that Iran experienced widespread mild to moderate droughts during the study period, excluding the Lake Urmia basin, with minimum SPI values showing a clear trend of change across most of the country. Notably, the eastern border region and the Qarah-Qom area demonstrated particular susceptibility to drought, potentially leading to significant ecological consequences such as changes in vegetation cover and increased soil erosion. Temporally, the second decade (1998-2007) was identified as highly drought-prone with moderate droughts affecting much of the country, while the third decade (2008-2017) showed a trend towards milder conditions. These findings are vital for developing effective water resource management strategies, implementing targeted drought mitigation measures, and building resilience to climate variability, ultimately ensuring water security and sustainable development in the region.Targeted interventions in Eastern Iran and Qarah-Qom, NAO-informed regional early-warning systems, and decadal-scale water allocation strategies are critical for drought mitigation.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Drought؛ NAO Signals؛ Climatic Controlled Index؛ Standardized Precipitation Index

مراجع
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Assessing the impact of global meteorological signals on drought occurrence in Iran