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تحلیل عدم قطعیت در شبیهسازی دبی مؤثر نشت از سدهای خاکی با الگوریتم مونتکارلو و یادگیری ماشین | ||
مدل سازی و مدیریت آب و خاک | ||
مقاله 10، دوره 4، شماره 1، فروردین 1403، صفحه 151-170 اصل مقاله (1.73 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22098/mmws.2023.12184.1208 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فرهود کلاته* 1؛ میلاد خیری2 | ||
1دانشیار/ گروه مهندسی عمران آب، دانشکدة مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران | ||
2دانشآموخته دکتری/ گروه مهندسی عمران آب، دانشکدة مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
عدم قطعیتهای ناشی از ماهیت پیچیدة خاک موجب گسترش استفاده از تحلیلهای احتمالاتی در طراحی سازههای خاکی شده است و در برخی از کشورها آییننامههای طراحی چنین سازههایی را تغییر داده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل تراوش با فرض عدم قطعیت در هدایت هیدرولیکی خاک است که در شرایط مختلف هندسی سد مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این پژوهش ترکیب روش اجزای محدود بهعنوان روش عددی محاسباتی در کنار یادگیری ماشینی (ML) برای بررسی مسأله تراوش از سد خاکی استفاده شده است که تحلیل عدم قطعیت در زبان برنامهنویسی فرترن با الگوریتم شبیهسازی مونتکارلو (MCS) پیادهسازی شده و با تعداد نمونة 2000 برای هر زیرمدل اجرا شده و تابع توزیع فراوانی برای هر مدل استخراج شد. سپس، نتایج احتمالاتی با رگرسیون بردار پشتیبان (SVR) و برنامهنویسی بیان ژن (GEP) تحلیل شدند که مدل درختی برای تراوش نیز ارائه شد. برای بررسی جریان نشت بهصورت بیبعد از مؤلفة دبی مؤثر نشت (ESD) استفاده شد که بیانگر جریان دبی خروجی با در نظر گرفتن هندسة سد و ضریب هدایت هیدرولیکی آن است. مدلسازی دادههای حاصل از کد فرترن به دو روش برنامهنویسی بیان ژن و رگرسیون بردار پشتیبان انجام شد. ضریب همبستگی مدل SVR و GEP بهترتیب 96/0 (در سه حالت دادههای آزمون، آموزش و کل) و 91/0 و ریشة میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) در هر دو مدل نزدیک 01/0 بهدست آمد که بیانگر این است که دو مدل مذکور با دقت مناسبی قادر به پیشبینی دبی مؤثر هستند و نتایج مدل SVR نسبت به مدل GEP به نتایج تحلیل ناشی از اجزای محدود، تطابق بیشتری دارد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تابع چگالی احتمال؛ تحلیل احتمالاتی؛ زبان برنامهنویسی فرترن؛ ماشین بردار پشتیبان؛ محیط متخلخل؛ هدایت هیدرولیکی خاک | ||
مراجع | ||
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